Season 4 Episode 8
Fantasy Football Sell High & Buy Low Targets | NFL Week 4 Preview, Bets & Best Backup QBs
The Screenplay Podcast — Week 3 Recap
The Screenplay Podcast broke down every marquee Week 3 game, ran its annual top-five backup quarterback rankings, released updated power rankings, and dug into fantasy football sell-high and buy-low candidates, Week 4 starts, betting picks, and the Survivor Pool standings.
NFL Week 3 Recap
Bears 27, Eagles 7 (Monday Night)
Third-string quarterback Case Keenum, making his first start in years, went 11-for-11 for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the first half alone (finishing around 250 yards, two touchdowns) as Chicago dominated on both sides of the ball. Both hosts credited Ben Johnson's scheme for making the Bears' quarterback situation work regardless of who's under center, with Andrew arguing Caleb Williams's tendency to look for hero plays actually fights the system Keenum and backup Tyson Bagent execute more naturally. Philadelphia's offense was held to 38 first-quarter yards per game on the season, and Nick Sirianni's decision not to call timeout before a Jalen Hurts injury replacement (Andy Dalton) threw an immediate interception drew criticism, as did the Eagles' offensive line and a Devonta Smith who looked visibly frustrated on the sideline.
Falcons 35, Packers 14 (Thursday Night)
Atlanta dominated the line of scrimmage in a game both hosts called one of the most lopsided trench performances they'd seen, out-rushing Green Bay 242-17 and forcing 15 rushing first downs to the Packers' one. Both hosts pointed to a depleted, injury-riddled Green Bay offensive line and a nonexistent running back room as the root issue, with Jordan Love throwing 53 times in a Matt LaFleur offense built to run the ball. Both hosts questioned whether Green Bay's late offseason extension for LaFleur is looking premature given seven losses in the team's last eight games, and noted a Josh Jacobs return remains uncertain with video evidence related to his exempt-list situation not yet sealed by the court.
Broncos 30, Rams 26 (Sunday Night)
Denver overcame an early 16-point deficit behind 30 second-half points and a controversial stretch of fourth-quarter officiating both hosts flagged as questionable, continuing what Andrew called an improbable pattern of close wins by a team he doesn't believe is actually that good. Bo Nix now has 11 game-winning drives since entering the league despite Denver trailing for a league-low amount of time this season.
Patriots Alarm Bells: Drake May
Both hosts sounded the alarm on Drake May, who has thrown seven touchdowns against nine fumbles and ten interceptions over his last seven starts with 30 sacks taken, and speculated New England may need to consider moving on from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels if the offense doesn't turn around. Both hosts debated whether the offense has genuinely been built around AJ Brown or whether May is simply forcing throws regardless of scheme, with Andrew floating the possibility of an underlying injury given how far May's play has fallen off from his breakout form.
0-3 Watch: Buccaneers, Chargers, Texans
Both hosts agreed none of the three winless "supposed to be good" teams are likely to make the playoffs: Tampa Bay is hampered by a banged-up Baker Mayfield (expected out two to four weeks) and what both hosts called the league's worst coaching staff, the Chargers are viewed as fully broken with a brutal remaining schedule, and the Texans, despite ranking highest of the three in the show's estimated playoff odds, were called "terrible" outright by Andrew after managing just 17 points against a bad Colts defense.
Annual Backup Quarterback Rankings
Andrew's list: 5. Jalon Daniels, Tampa Bay's new backup behind an injured Baker Mayfield (leaning into the hype after his college tape at Kansas); 4. Drew Lock; 3. Tyler Huntley; 2. Mac Jones; 1. Tyson Bagent (with Andrew arguing Bagent, not Case Keenum, is the Bears' best backup option).
Evan's list: 5. Carson Beck; 4. Drake May; 3. Drew Lock; 2. Joe Flacco; 1. Mac Jones.
Screenplay Podcast Power Rankings — Week 4
1. Buffalo Bills (3-0) 2. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) 3. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) 4. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) 5. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) 6. Denver Broncos (2-1) 7. Chicago Bears (2-1) 8. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) 9. Los Angeles Rams (1-2) 10. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
The Bills remain No. 1 despite 10 penalties and five turnovers in their Week 3 win, largely on the strength of a defense both hosts credited in part to a dominant season from Greg Rousseau. Both hosts noted the Raiders and Vikings, two of the league's five remaining unbeaten-or-one-loss teams at the time, were left out of the top ten, while the Lions narrowly missed the cut.
Fantasy Football: Sell-High Candidates
Davante Adams is viewed as a sell-high with Puka Nacua's return likely to cut into his target share, and Jordan Addison's big game is viewed as largely a product of a Justin Jefferson injury rather than a sustainable role. Both hosts are skeptical of Woody Marks-handcuff-type value back Ollie Gordon II stepping into a workhorse role for Miami, with Andrew estimating a capped 15-carries-with-little-receiving-work ceiling. On the Evan side, Jaylen Warren (coming off a 20.6-point week, with Rico Dowdle expected back and a brutal upcoming schedule) is a sell-high, along with Omarion Hampton (losing snap and red-zone share to Kimani Vidal) and Juwan Johnson (currently TE3 but likely to cool as Chris Olave returns, following the same hot-start pattern he showed last season before finishing TE8).
Fantasy Football: Buy-Low Candidates
Rashee Rice is viewed as a buy-low after a rough start against unusually heavy man coverage, with both hosts expecting his role as Kansas City's primary zone-beating target to hold even as touchdown equity near the goal line skews toward Kenneth Walker III. Josh Downs (elite separation metrics despite a tough-luck 12.5-point outing) and Bhayshul Tuten (trending toward a bottom-RB1/high-RB2 role as Jacksonville's coaching staff gains confidence in him) round out Andrew's list. Evan's buy-lows: George Pickens (WR33 currently, but a clear complementary piece to CeeDee Lamb in Dallas's passing game), Saquon Barkley (RB38 currently despite an improving offensive line and situation), and TreVeyon Henderson (available for "pennies on the dollar" as New England searches for playmakers).
Week 4 Fantasy Football Starts
Josh Downs (vs. Commanders in London, with Alec Pierce still out), Brenton Strange (vs. Bengals, who struggle covering tight ends), Jameson Williams (Sunday night vs. Panthers, who are missing both starting cornerbacks JC Horn and Michael Jackson), Aaron Jones (vs. Dolphins, expected to see more checkdown work with Jefferson out), Luther Burden III (vs. Jets, benefiting from Chicago's backup-quarterback situation), and Braelon Allen (vs. Bears, with Breece Hall out).
Week 4 Fantasy Football Sits
Ollie Gordon II (vs. Vikings, a tough matchup for an unproven role), Quinshon Judkins (vs. Steelers, capped ceiling in a low-scoring game), Omarion Hampton (vs. Seahawks, losing snaps to Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell), Ladd McConkey and Jadarian Price (both vs. Seahawks, tough matchup with declining usage for Price), and Drake May (vs. Bills).
Week 4 NFL Betting Picks
Evan went 3-0 against the spread last week to improve to 6-3 on the season (54.67% all-time); Andrew went 1-2 to fall to 4-5 on the season (55.7% all-time).
Andrew's picks: Lions −3.5 vs. Panthers; Cowboys +2.5 at Texans; Rams −3 at Eagles.
Evan's picks: Chiefs −4.5 at Raiders; Jets +3 at Bears; Chargers +7 at Seahawks.
Screenplay Podcast Survivor Pool Update
The pool has narrowed from 51 entrants to just 31 remaining (15% of the original 200) heading into Week 4. The Chiefs (39% of the field) and Lions (12%) both proved to be the week's biggest landmines along with the Bills (10%), while Green Bay was the field's biggest bust at 10% of entries.
Listen to the Full Episode
New episodes of The Screenplay Podcast drop every Wednesday at 8 a.m. wherever you stream podcasts, hosted by Evan Grenus and PGA Tour winner Andrew Novak, running from now through the Super Bowl. A full written recap with fantasy starts/sits, bets, and more is also posted to the site's blog every week.