Season 4 Episode 1
Season 4 Kickoff Show: AFC East & West Deep Dive | Guest: James Nicholas
The Screenplay Podcast — Season 4 Kickoff
The Screenplay Podcast opened Season 4 with an AFC East and West deep dive, joined by Korn Ferry Tour pro and lifelong Jets fan James Nicholas. Hosts Evan Grenus and Andrew Novak then broke down every team in both divisions — real-life storylines, win totals, and a full fantasy football position-by-position guide.
Guest Spotlight: James Nicholas on Golf, the Jets, and a Family Legacy
James Nicholas joined from Scarsdale, New York, currently sitting 22nd on the Korn Ferry Tour points list — just outside the top 20 that earn PGA Tour cards — with a win already banked this season in Bogotá. He detailed a freak injury suffered overseas: after getting locked out of his hotel during a trip to Ibiza and Majorca, he jumped a wall to reach his car and bruised both calcaneus bones, pushing through The Open before spending six days in a wheelchair. He returned last week and made the cut, needing roughly one more strong finish to climb back inside the top 20 with two regular-season events and four playoff events remaining.
A three-sport athlete in high school, Nicholas chose Yale for the rare chance to play both football and golf, before dropping football after one season to focus on golf full-time — a decision cemented by a spring-break trip to Cypress Point and Pebble Beach. He's also part of an NFL medical dynasty: his grandfather, Dr. James A. Nicholas, was a pioneer of sports medicine who performed Joe Namath's knee surgery and worked the Jets' Super Bowl III win, with Nicholas's father later becoming the team doctor himself.
On football, Nicholas is a diehard Jets fan who says anything more than six wins this year would feel like a success, while Andrew argued the roster and three projected first-round picks in 2027 set New York up well for a coaching change and a potential rebuild around a high draft pick. On fantasy football, Nicholas — a 2024 league champion — said he prioritizes wide receivers early, waits on running backs for value, and takes his quarterback late unless a true top-three option falls to him.
AFC East Preview
Buffalo Bills
Odds: −140 to win the AFC East, 10-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 10.5 (both hosts like the over).
New head coach Joe Brady steps up from offensive coordinator, and the Bills added DJ Moore to finally give Josh Allen a true No. 1 receiver. The hosts see a brutal opening stretch (Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots, Rams) followed by a much easier back half of the schedule. Fantasy-wise, Allen is the unanimous No. 1 quarterback, James Cook is a strong RB2 option, and Evan is notably higher than Andrew on DJ Moore's value at his current WR27 price, comparing the setup to Stefon Diggs's run of top-10 finishes in Buffalo.
New England Patriots
Odds: +145 to win the AFC East, 17-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 9.5 (Evan predicts 11-6).
The Patriots added AJ Brown, Stevenson insurance, and offensive-line help after a surprise playoff push last year, though both hosts expect some schedule-driven regression. Andrew called AJ Brown a perfect complement to Drake May's deep-ball accuracy and likes New England as a lock for the postseason if the offensive line holds up. On fantasy, both hosts are high on AJ Brown as a potential top-five wide receiver, view Romeo Dobbs as undervalued at WR47, and see the Rhamondre Stevenson / TreVeyon Henderson backfield as a value-based lottery ticket.
New York Jets
Odds: +2000 to win the AFC East, 250-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 5.5.
With Aaron Glenn entering year two and Geno Smith at quarterback, both hosts questioned whether the coaching staff survives the season, while agreeing the roster — particularly the offensive line — is better than its record will suggest. Fantasy-wise, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are the only two players either host is willing to draft, and both are wary of investing further given the offense's inconsistency.
Miami Dolphins
Odds: +4000 to win the AFC East, 350-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 4.5.
Miami enters the season with roughly $179 million in dead cap space — about 40% of the total cap — after 30 roster departures. Both hosts expect a rough year but not necessarily an unwatchable one, citing young playmakers like Malik Willis and Devon Achane. On fantasy, Achane is viewed as a workhorse who could push 350-plus touches and return strong PPR value even in a weak offense, while the rest of the receiving corps is largely a pass.
AFC West Preview
Las Vegas Raiders
Odds: +2000 to win the AFC West, 150-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 5.5 (Evan predicts the over, forecasting an 0-7 start before Fernando Mendoza takes over).
New head coach Pete Carroll's staff includes DC Rob Ryan-style promotions and OC Chip Kelly, brought in with Kirk Cousins entrenched as the starter to open the year. Both hosts see a brutal early schedule and a late Week 13 bye that makes it unclear when rookie Fernando Mendoza gets his first start, with Evan guessing Week 12 or later. On fantasy, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers are viewed as the engine of the entire offense — both hosts have Jeanty as a top-six or seven running back and Bowers as a locked-in second-round tight end pick.
Denver Broncos
Odds: +250 to win the AFC West, 18-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 9.5 (Evan predicts 9 wins and missing the playoffs).
Promoted play-caller Davis Webb takes over an offense that added Jalen Waddle to fix last year's lack of explosive plays, but both hosts flagged one of the toughest opening schedules in the NFL (at Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, at 49ers, at Chargers, Seahawks) as a major regression risk after 14 one-score wins last season. On fantasy, Waddle is viewed as the best value in the receiving corps ahead of Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin, while the J.K. Dobbins / RJ Harvey backfield is worth a shot purely on the strength of Denver's offensive line.
Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: +190 to win the AFC West, 17-1 Super Bowl odds. Both hosts project double-digit wins.
The Chargers brought in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator along with tight ends Njoku and Kohler and fullback Alec Ingold, signaling a heavier, run-first identity built around a much-improved offensive line. On fantasy, both hosts view Justin Herbert as one of the safest quarterback plays in the league, love Omarion Hampton's touchdown upside in a run-friendly scheme, and flagged Quentin Johnston as a classic boom-or-bust bench player who will be nearly impossible to correctly start each week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +160 to win the AFC West, 16-1 Super Bowl odds. Win total: 10.5 (Evan predicts 11-6 and a playoff berth).
Eric Bieniemy returns as offensive coordinator with Patrick Mahomes working back from a torn ACL, and both hosts expect the offense to run more through Kenneth Walker and less through Mahomes's legs. Concerns center on defensive losses (Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Bryan Cook) and a suspiciously favorable early schedule that both hosts believe was built to ease Mahomes back in. On fantasy, Andrew is notably higher than Evan on Kenneth Walker's goal-line role, both value Travis Kelce as a top-five tight end at a discounted ADP, and Rashee Rice is viewed as a high-volume PPR asset once he returns to full health.
Screenplay Podcast Survivor Pool
The Screenplay Podcast is running its Survivor Pool again this season: $0 entry fee, $250 cash to the winner, hosted on Sleeper. Pick one team each week — win and advance, lose and you're out, with no revives. Sign up through the link on the show's Instagram page or website.
Listen to the Full Episode
New episodes of The Screenplay Podcast drop every Wednesday at 8 a.m. wherever you stream podcasts, hosted by Evan Grenus and PGA Tour winner Andrew Novak, running from now through the Super Bowl. Next week's episode covers the AFC North and South with special guest Jeff Hamley, Andrew Novak's caddie and a lifelong Cleveland Browns fan.